https://www.youtube.com/watch/EXETOHvRMj4 Can the US win by undoing globalization? | Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take
The United States has become the principal driver of geopolitical uncertainty on the global stage. In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer looks at how reversing globalization will impact the world and the US itself.
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Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take:
The big macro lens is that the United States, my country, has become the principal driver of geopolitical uncertainty on the global stage. The most powerful country in the world, the biggest economy in the world, the home of the global reserve currency. And yet, at the same time, by far the most dysfunctional and kleptocratic and unfree political system of the advanced industrial democracies, so the G7 plus, compared to Japan or Germany or France or the UK or Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea. That’s what we’re looking at right now. And of course, that’s a really challenging thing for pretty much everybody to navigate.
It is playing out the most dramatically in global trade with massive tariffs coming from the United States. And it’s unclear who is going to get hit the worst, but it is clear that everyone is going to take a hit. This isn’t a good environment for anybody. You want to talk about winners? There’s not really any winners when you’re undoing globalization. It’s painful for pretty much everyone inside the United States. It’s painful for multinational corporations, it’s painful for consumers, it’s painful for friends and adversaries of the United States all over the world. Whether it’s China, it’s Europe, Japan, Global South, you name it, everyone is taking a hit, everyone’s economy will do worse, global growth will do worse. We will all feel it in the pocketbook, in the portfolio. Uncertainty, a massive amount of uncertainty being driven and driven continuously by the most powerful country in the world is hard for everybody to navigate and creates more cost.
Now, the markets are clearly glad that there has been rollback from the United States, from Trump, in particular the over 10% tariffs on most countries coming off for some 90 days, the electronics and iPhone exception, at least for now, on China, et cetera. But it’s certainly unclear how long those exemptions are going to last and what happens after that. And even where we are right now, with 10% additional tariffs on everybody and significant essentially trade embargo on most goods between the United States and China, the two most powerful countries in the world, that already brings us squarely back to the 1930s in terms of the global tariff environment, and also at a time that things are moving much faster, that efficiencies are much greater, that global interconnectedness and supply chains so much more important.
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