https://www.youtube.com/watch/tLX4ZA9_fLA Why is Trump starting a trade war with Canada? | Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take
Trump’s latest tariffs hit Canada hard—harder than even China. What’s behind this decision, and how are Canadians fighting back?@Ian_Bremmerbreaks down the economic and political implications in this Quick Take.
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A Quick Take on the US-Canada relationship, which, right now, is on ice. And I don’t mean the hockey kind. Trump, the tariff-man, cometh. Some 25% across the board on Canada, on Mexico too, except on Canadian oil, that’s only 10%. Why? Why 10% on oil? Because that’s actually what makes up Canada’s surplus with the United States. So, wouldn’t you actually hit that sector harder if you were trying to balance the budget? And the answer is, of course, no. That’s like saying Canada’s a friend and China’s an enemy, and so wouldn’t you hit the Chinese harder than the Canadians instead of the Chinese only 10%, the Canadians 25%, Mexico 25%, but that’s also not the case. Why? Because China can cause a lot more damage to the United States. And so therefore, President Trump has to be more careful. Canada, Mexico, a lot smaller, much easier to punch down against the Canadians, even if it’s technically punching up, given where they sit geographically. And except for oil, where the United States gets 4 million barrels a day, which is much more than the US gets from the rest of the world combined. And that quality of crude, only replaceable in terms of the kind of crude it is from Venezuela with massive sanctions and run by a dictator, and they’ve destroyed much of their own oil sector, so that’s not a capability, which means that the Canadians can’t send it anywhere else, the Americans can’t buy it anywhere else, but the US is more powerful, so Trump thinks he can get away with it.
So, why? If it’s not about oil and it’s not really about the trade surplus, then why is it that Trump is doing this? What he says, is it’s about fentanyl and illegal migrants, that the Canadians are not policing their border. Again, doesn’t make a lot of sense. It makes more sense for Mexico, and again, there’s a big question about whether the smartest thing to do is, you know, shoot first and ask questions later, or negotiate credibly first and not undermine the economies, the much weaker economies of your friends. But when it comes to Canada, the argument doesn’t make sense at all. Fentanyl, we’re talking about on average every year about 10 kilos of fentanyl that is interdicted at the border, which is, by the way, that’s every year from Canada. That’s less than what you see in Mexico every day. So, it’s way under 1% of the total.
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